Trump and Xi are set to meet in Washington later this month, with the October 2025 trade truce expiring November 10 and rare earths, chips, and Taiwan all on the table.

The meeting will be framed as a chance to reset, but VICO's forecasts point the other way: the two economies are already decoupling, and the summit is unlikely to reverse it.

China has little reason to escalate with new controls when its firms have already cut rare-earth exports to the US, so the leverage is being applied without a new rulebook. That puts the odds of Beijing's suspended secondary export-control round at just 26%, while the US looks set to advance the Taiwan arms package Beijing most wants stopped, at 55%.

The deals that would mark a real reset look nearly off the table, with a rare-earth supply guarantee at 8% and any easing of US chip restrictions at 5%, because each side would rather hold its leverage than trade it away.

With a supply guarantee at 8% and any chip easing at 5%, the model reads the summit as almost certain to end without a substantive deal on the two issues that matter most. Expect atmospherics and maybe a truce extension, not a resolution.

That makes no deal the base case to plan around, and it is bullish for the ex-China supply chain: domestic and allied rare-earth miners, plus defense contractors tied to the Taiwan deal, are the likely beneficiaries.