VICO Midterm Preview: Democrats Favored for the House, and Now Narrowly the Senate Too
On Tuesday night, the final primary elections were held, officially cementing the general election slate for all 50 states.
This section is an overview of the VICO model's projections for both the House and the Senate.
Democrats are comfortably favored to retake the chamber, though VICO is more restrained than the betting markets, and it gives better-than-even odds that the majority will be at least 10 seats.
A Democratic majority in the House would effectively block any non-bipartisan Trump legislation. Importantly, a victory with a strong majority would strengthen Democratic leadership and weaken the influence of the party's flanks who may break with leadership on key votes.
The Senate is a genuine toss-up, and the tension is simple: Republicans are defending an unpopular president, but Democrats have a rough map and need to flip four seats for a majority.
43% Ken Paxton (R) wins Texas. Versus Polymarket at 44%.
34%: Dan Sullivan (R) wins Alaska. Versus Polymarket at 35%.
54%: Abdul El-Sayed (D) wins Michigan. Versus Polymarket at 62%.
41%: Troy Jackson (D) wins Maine. Versus Polymarket at 69%.
47%: Josh Turek (D) wins Iowa. Versus Polymarket at 41%.
63%: Pete Ricketts (R) wins Nebraska. Versus Polymarket at 68%.
64%: Sherrod Brown (D) wins Ohio. Versus Polymarket at 56%.
72%: Roger Marshall (R) wins Kansas. Versus Polymarket at 75%.
The VICO model has moved sharply towards Democrats, crossing above 50% for the first time, up from 30% in late July.
The VICO model expects a Democratic victory in the House, and argues the Senate is a toss-up with a very slight Democratic lean. A Senate victory would allow Democrats to block any Supreme Court picks and bog down the administration with investigations.
