Google’s October 6 agreement with Constellation to add 890 MW of nuclear capacity is the latest in a wave of Big Tech nuclear deals aimed at powering AI. The model sees that wave accelerating, but with delivery timelines that rule out a short-term supply boon.

Dealmaking is close to a sure thing, with more capacity committed fast. The model gives a 75% chance Google signs a third nuclear deal beyond its Constellation and Kairos agreements, and 87% that total announced US tech-nuclear capacity clears 15 gigawatts before 2028.

Delivery is the lag. Even the fast path of uprates, which raise the output of existing reactors, takes years, with the model putting the first Google-Constellation uprate online before 2029 at only 42%.

The wave keeps building, yet almost none of it is supply a data center can draw on soon. Another deal is likely within months, while the reactors meant to deliver real scale are a decade out.

That gap favors the operators who can deliver this decade through uprates and restarts, Constellation Energy (CEG) and Vistra (VST), over the SMR developers whose power is a 2030s story.