Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu heads a fragile minority government facing a make-or-break budget vote, with his 2027 budget trying to cut the deficit to 5% of GDP and his survival hinging on whether Marine Le Pen’s bloc lets it pass.

The backdrop turned violent, as nationwide protests spilled into looting and arson the weekend of October 17, while Macron’s approval sank to a record-low 15%.

The government may not last the year, with the model giving a 62% chance the Lecornu government falls to a resignation or no-confidence vote, though Macron himself is very unlikely to step down, at just 5%.

The unrest could force a harder state response. With curfews already imposed in several cities after the October 17 violence, the model puts 45% on France escalating to a nationwide state of emergency this year.

But the deeper problem is fiscal. Public debt stands at 119% of GDP, the highest since World War II, and Lecornu’s budget aims to cut the deficit to 5% of GDP, but the model gives just 35% that France actually passes a 2027 budget hitting that 5%-or-better target this year.

The debt crisis is already forcing the rating agencies’ hand and, in the extreme, could see France approach the IMF for assistance.

The protests are boosting the far right as the center left establishment in power is blamed for the chaos. Partially as a result, the VICO model has Le Pen at even odds with the rest of the field.